SPCX
The complete LODESTAR readout on SpaceX. Composite Health Score, IPO countdown, deal stats, and the kind of plain-English intel your broker will not show you.
Spot is the official Nasdaq print. Perp is the Hyperliquid HIP-3 SPCX-PERP market. Spread = (perp − spot) / spot. A persistently positive spread means perp traders are paying a premium to be long — a crowded-long warning. Negative spread = perp discount.
A composite of standard public technical indicators provided for information only. Not a buy or sell signal and not financial advice.
What everyone else is doing on the Hyperliquid SPCX perp, sourced directly from public on-chain data. Funding and open interest, large-wallet flow, and live liquidations. Neutral condition readouts, not buy or sell calls and not financial advice.
Awaiting first funding tick.
Positive funding means longs pay shorts. Neutral on-chain condition readout, not a buy/sell signal and not financial advice.
Awaiting first liquidation events.
Squeeze pressure is derived from funding, OI trend, and recent liq imbalance — not a precise liquidation-level map (that needs per-position data, a v2 upgrade). Neutral condition readout, not financial advice.
Awaiting first prints.
Aggregate, anonymized on-chain flow. No address attribution. Not a tipsheet and not financial advice.
When a lockup expires, insiders who held through the cliff can sell on day one. Small float + sudden supply = sharp moves. Track every tranche below; the largest is almost always the 180-day cliff.
First public look at financials, risk factors, cap table, and the xAI merger disclosure.
Adds preliminary price range and updated share count. The number that anchors valuation.
Locks in offering price ($135) and final share count before pricing night.
The legal offering doc. Confirms allocations, underwriter discount, and use of proceeds.
First post-IPO numbers. Watch Starlink margin, xAI burn, and any revised guidance.
Earliest date insiders can report sales. First Form 4s here will move the stock.
Last quarterly before main lockup expiry. Sets the narrative going into the cliff.
Not a filing — but the calendar event. Expect a wave of Form 4s in the days after.
Full audited financials, executive comp, lockup ladder, and risk factor updates.
Dates after listing are projected from standard SEC reporting cadences and the prospectus terms. Filed entries reflect the public EDGAR record. Not legal or investment advice.
Reports point to up to 30 percent of the offering reserved for retail, about three times the usual norm. More retail in the book can mean stronger day-one demand and sharper swings.
Musk keeps roughly 85 percent of voting power through super-voting shares while owning about 42 percent of the equity. Public holders take the risk and get almost no say.
Only a tiny slice of shares actually trades day one, the rest locked with insiders. Small float plus global demand equals violent moves, which is why the open can rip well above $135.
Insiders cannot sell for a set window after listing, with the expiry landing around late 2026. When it opens, employees, early backers, and the bank syndicate can all sell at once. This is the bear clock.
Nasdaq fast-entry rules can add a qualifying megacap to the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days. Once in, index funds become price-insensitive buyers. The S&P review is separate and still pending.
Morningstar pegs fair value near $780 billion, far below the $1.75T deal. ARK's Cathie Wood sees a path to $2.5 trillion by 2030. That gap is the entire argument in one line.
Starlink did about $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025, up roughly 50 percent year over year, with subscribers past ten million. It flipped from cash sink to cash engine.
SpaceX flew 83 percent of all mass to orbit in 2025 and cut cost per kilogram by more than 95 percent with reusable rockets. It also holds more than $24 billion in federal contracts since 2008.
In February 2026 Musk folded xAI, Grok, and X into SpaceX in the largest corporate merger by valuation ever. The AI unit burns serious cash, which is why the company posts large GAAP losses. The bull case treats AI as a free option, the bear case calls it a money pit, and the filing admits some plans rely on tech that does not exist yet.