Research · desk 001

SPCX

The complete LODESTAR readout on SpaceX. Composite Health Score, IPO countdown, deal stats, and the kind of plain-English intel your broker will not show you.

pre-launch · free preview
full intel open until $LODESTAR launches
SPCXSpaceX · Nasdaq
First trade Fri, 12 Jun 2026
First trade in
00
days
:
03
hrs
:
58
min
:
20
sec
Charts · real-time
SPCX price
Spot · Nasdaq
PRE-LISTING
Perp · Hyperliquid
LIVE · HL HIP-3
Spread (perp − spot)
needs both feeds
Provider
STUB
stub · pre-listing

Spot is the official Nasdaq print. Perp is the Hyperliquid HIP-3 SPCX-PERP market. Spread = (perp − spot) / spot. A persistently positive spread means perp traders are paying a premium to be long — a crowded-long warning. Negative spread = perp discount.

Health Indicator
SPCX composite score
PRE-LISTING
awaiting first print
Sub-indicators populate after the first print. Click "show sample reading" for an illustrative view.

A composite of standard public technical indicators provided for information only. Not a buy or sell signal and not financial advice.

Price discovery
Perp price
$157.00
Premium · perp vs spot
+16.30%
vs $135.00 offer (pre-listing)
Source
aggregated SPCX perp market incl. Hyperliquid HIP-3, 5x cash-settled. informational only.
On-chain positioning · the leveraged crowd

What everyone else is doing on the Hyperliquid SPCX perp, sourced directly from public on-chain data. Funding and open interest, large-wallet flow, and live liquidations. Neutral condition readouts, not buy or sell calls and not financial advice.

Market pressure
Awaiting first read on the tape.
50
balanced
Funding & open interest
Which side is paying
shorts crowdedBALANCEDlongs crowded
score 0 / 100
Funding · hourly
Open interest

Awaiting first funding tick.

Positive funding means longs pay shorts. Neutral on-chain condition readout, not a buy/sell signal and not financial advice.

Liquidations & squeeze pressure
Where leverage is at risk
long liqs $0short liqs $0
last 60m
derived squeeze pressure0/ 100
BALANCED
Recent liquidations
No liquidations in the current window.

Awaiting first liquidation events.

Squeeze pressure is derived from funding, OI trend, and recent liq imbalance — not a precise liquidation-level map (that needs per-position data, a v2 upgrade). Neutral condition readout, not financial advice.

Whale & large-wallet flow
What size is doing
large buys large sells
net · last 60mlarge share of vol
Recent large prints
No large prints in the current window.

Awaiting first prints.

Aggregate, anonymized on-chain flow. No address attribution. Not a tipsheet and not financial advice.

Ops · the business behind the ticker
Starlink subscribers
0+
+52% YoY
Crossed 10M in Q1 2026
Starlink revenue (TTM)
$0B
+49% YoY
$4.4B operating profit
Launches YTD
0
of ~180 target
Falcon 9 + Falcon Heavy + Starship
Share of mass to orbit
0%
vs 78% in 2024
Global, 2025 cycle
Starship test flights
0
+5 this year
Last: IFT-14, partial success
Federal contracts (cum.)
$0B
since 2008
NASA, DoD, Space Force
Lockup pressure
The bear clock
84% PENDING
91
days to early lockup

When a lockup expires, insiders who held through the cliff can sell on day one. Small float + sudden supply = sharp moves. Track every tranche below; the largest is almost always the 180-day cliff.

Early lockup
Select syndicate banks · 90-day window
10 Sep 2026
T-91d · DISTANT
8% of float
Main lockup expiry
Employees, early backers, syndicate · 180-day cliff
10 Dec 2026
T-182d · DISTANT
62% of float
Founder lockup
Founder & executive shares · 12-month window
12 Jun 2027
T-366d · DISTANT
14% of float
Filings calendar
What lands, when, and why it matters
next event
424B4 · in 0d
15 May 2026
28d ago
S-1filed
Initial registration statement

First public look at financials, risk factors, cap table, and the xAI merger disclosure.

29 May 2026
14d ago
S-1/Afiled
Amendment #1 · pricing range

Adds preliminary price range and updated share count. The number that anchors valuation.

09 Jun 2026
3d ago
S-1/Afiled
Amendment #2 · final terms

Locks in offering price ($135) and final share count before pricing night.

11 Jun 2026
TODAY
424B4expected
Final prospectus

The legal offering doc. Confirms allocations, underwriter discount, and use of proceeds.

12 Aug 2026
in 61d
10-Qexpected
Q2 2026 — first quarterly report

First post-IPO numbers. Watch Starlink margin, xAI burn, and any revised guidance.

20 Sep 2026
in 100d
Form 4expected
Insider transaction window opens

Earliest date insiders can report sales. First Form 4s here will move the stock.

05 Nov 2026
in 146d
10-Qexpected
Q3 2026

Last quarterly before main lockup expiry. Sets the narrative going into the cliff.

10 Dec 2026
in 181d
Lockup expiryexpected
Main 180-day lockup ends

Not a filing — but the calendar event. Expect a wave of Form 4s in the days after.

15 Mar 2027
in 276d
10-Kexpected
First annual report (FY 2026)

Full audited financials, executive comp, lockup ladder, and risk factor updates.

Dates after listing are projected from standard SEC reporting cadences and the prospectus terms. Filed entries reflect the public EDGAR record. Not legal or investment advice.

Deal stats
Offer price
$135
Valuation
$1.75T
Raise
$75B
Shares
556.6M
Float
~5%
Revenue multiple
~94×
Ticker
SPCX · Nasdaq
First trade
Jun 12, 2026
Intel · plain English
30%
not in your broker
Retail gets an unusually big slice.

Reports point to up to 30 percent of the offering reserved for retail, about three times the usual norm. More retail in the book can mean stronger day-one demand and sharper swings.

85%
not in your broker
You are buying a ticket, not a vote.

Musk keeps roughly 85 percent of voting power through super-voting shares while owning about 42 percent of the equity. Public holders take the risk and get almost no say.

~5%
free float
The float is the whole game.

Only a tiny slice of shares actually trades day one, the rest locked with insiders. Small float plus global demand equals violent moves, which is why the open can rip well above $135.

Dec 2026
not in your broker
Mark the lockup date.

Insiders cannot sell for a set window after listing, with the expiry landing around late 2026. When it opens, employees, early backers, and the bank syndicate can all sell at once. This is the bear clock.

15 days
not in your broker
The forced-buyer trigger.

Nasdaq fast-entry rules can add a qualifying megacap to the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days. Once in, index funds become price-insensitive buyers. The S&P review is separate and still pending.

$780B vs $2.5T
not in your broker
Two credible people, wildly different numbers.

Morningstar pegs fair value near $780 billion, far below the $1.75T deal. ARK's Cathie Wood sees a path to $2.5 trillion by 2030. That gap is the entire argument in one line.

$11.4B
the engine
Starlink is the real business.

Starlink did about $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025, up roughly 50 percent year over year, with subscribers past ten million. It flipped from cash sink to cash engine.

83%
the moat
A genuine launch monopoly.

SpaceX flew 83 percent of all mass to orbit in 2025 and cut cost per kilogram by more than 95 percent with reusable rockets. It also holds more than $24 billion in federal contracts since 2008.

xAI
the wildcard
Not just a rocket company anymore.

In February 2026 Musk folded xAI, Grok, and X into SpaceX in the largest corporate merger by valuation ever. The AI unit burns serious cash, which is why the company posts large GAAP losses. The bull case treats AI as a free option, the bear case calls it a money pit, and the filing admits some plans rely on tech that does not exist yet.

The Health Score is a composite of standard public technical indicators provided for information only. It is not a buy or sell signal and not financial advice. Pre-listing values are demo or sourced from perp markets and may differ from the eventual exchange price. All deal figures are reported or targeted and may change before pricing. LODESTAR is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to SpaceX, Nasdaq, Hyperliquid, or any venue named on the platform.